AI is the ultimate future of science and technolog

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Zhu Min: artificial intelligence is the ultimate future of science and technology

chinanews client, April 10 (Xinhua): AI is the ultimate future of science and technology

author Zhu Min (Dean of the National Institute of finance, Tsinghua University)

looking back on the past decade of the world economy, it has been a decade of profound structural changes in many aspects, including population aging, climate change and economic structure lightening. From the perspective of economics, we call it "exogenous variable", that is, we can only accept and adapt to changes that are not transferred by human will. Structural changes provide a magnificent development stage for AI. AI can help solve the impact of the above three changes, and also outline a blue ocean for the development of AI industry

first, population aging

the world's population is growing continuously. The huge population promotes the growth of the global labor supply market, but also produces complex problems, such as employment, immigration, etc., of which the most serious problem is population aging. In 2050, the global population will increase by 2.3 billion, but the net increase is mainly concentrated in the 60 year old and 70 year old age groups. It can be seen that the power supply is 380v/50hz, and the aging trend of the whole society

the aging problem is particularly serious in developed countries. For example:

globally, Japan is the most typical aging country. The aging population has changed Japan's demand structure, supply structure and government policies. From the 1990s to 2016, the whole industrial structure of Japan has undergone fundamental changes. The construction industry, manufacturing industry, service industry and financial industry have shrunk to varying degrees, and the health care expenditure has increased sharply, which is an inevitable process of aging

in the process of aging, the Japanese industry has been seriously impacted, and the land price has turned to a sharp decline after rising. Many people believe that Japan's real estate market is affected by the foam economy. In fact, the foam was the "trigger point" that impacted the real estate market. The reason why Japan's real estate failed was that the foam economy triggered people's fear of aging

aging is an irreversible process, with profound changes in the economic structure, demand structure and behavior structure of the whole society. Therefore, population aging is the largest "exogenous variable" of structural changes in the world economy

second, climate change

if the global temperature is not effectively controlled, it is expected that by 2060, most parts of the world will enter a hot and dry environment, and only Siberia and northern Africa and some small parts of Africa can live. Climate change will become the biggest challenge for human survival

the consumption of energy such as oil by human activities leads to a sharp rise in carbon emissions, which in turn affects global climate change. On the contrary, the primary consideration in controlling climate change is to reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency

from the perspective of energy utilization indicators, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is 1.01%, Japan's is 0.19%, and the world average is 0.42%. The data show that China's energy consumption efficiency is low, emissions are high, and there is great room for development and improvement. Therefore, China's investment on the basis of environment in the next few years will lead the world, or even exceed it

China's investment in urban environmental protection, industrial pollution control and renewable energy is rising sharply. Energy and environmental protection ① putting the dial indicator in the center of the clamp seat is a particularly important factor for China's future investment and development. How to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions is a major challenge for China's current development. With the development of global science and technology, the price of renewable energy continues to decline. Taking cars as an example, the global output of electric vehicles and hybrid energy vehicles accounts for only 1.12% of the total global vehicles. China's goal is to increase this proportion to 40% by 2030. At that time, the entire automotive industry will undergo a fundamental reorganization, and the future economic structure and consumption structure will change accordingly

third, the lightening of economic structure and the shift of people's consumption preferences to lightening

since the financial crisis, we have seen a "rebound" in global economic growth, which has maintained medium and low-speed growth. In the past decade, the global economic growth rate has been lower than the economic level before the crisis, and the economy will continue to decline slowly in the next two to three years, which is the general trend of global economic development

under this background, the global investment level is seriously insufficient. By comparing the expected investment level of the world today with the actual level in 2007, it can be found that the investment level of European and American countries has fallen by 25 percentage points of GDP. The insufficient investment is due to the continuous lightening of the whole industry. Take China as an example. During the Spring Festival this year, our consumption of entertainment and food exceeded our consumption of pork and wine, and our consumption of health far exceeded our consumption demand of refrigerators and color TVs. Due to the change of people's preferences, our overall consumption moved towards service industry and light industry

if the three major changes are integrated, the most important and powerful tool to help solve these three changes is artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is subverting the future, innovating all products and services, changing all manufacturing, service, military and national defense, changing the production and distribution of materials and wealth, and changing mankind itself

Fourth, the industrialization of artificial intelligence

we classify the latest applications of artificial intelligence in the world into the following categories:

machine vision, speech and sound perception, natural language processing, search, information processing and knowledge extraction, predictive analysis, planning and exploration agents, etc. These technologies have been widely used and play an important role in solving the three economic structural changes

from the perspective of manufacturing industry, automation, R & D, operation, sales and middle office management are now very common. Customer target operation, throughput optimization and predictive planning are all real AI applications. Artificial intelligence helps enterprises to automate. There are almost mature technologies for the whole process simulation of window automation, preventive maintenance, device drive, visual inspection and so on. For example, Foxconn is building a fully automatic assembly line through robots to replace direct operators and improve manufacturing efficiency

AI is the first time to connect the three dimensions of manufacturing industry:

first, at the manufacturing level, AI opens up the it, cloud and entity manufacturing layers, and extends to the production line level; Second, at the supply chain level, for example, 358 supply chain manufacturers and 56 core supply chain manufacturers in Shenzhen are completely managed by artificial intelligence systems, and industrial chain management has significantly increased their market share; Third, artificial intelligence makes the update design of products intelligent, and three-dimensional space helps the manufacturing industry fully automated. China is a large manufacturing country. The total service purpose of Jinan testing machine in China's manufacturing industry today is the sum of the United States and Japan, and next year is the sum of the United States, Germany and Japan. The AI and intelligence of manufacturing industry is the future shared by AI and manufacturing industry

in dealing with climate change, artificial intelligence can predict temperature more accurately, provide better climate solutions through climate simulation and analysis, and improve energy efficiency. For example, the great improvement of air pollution in Beijing is due to the development of artificial intelligence. AI can focus the observation target on an area of one square kilometer through remote control, which greatly improves the accuracy of observation

Japan is the most typical in improving labor productivity in the service industry. It is very common to use robots to serve the elderly and improve labor productivity through artificial intelligence. In China, artificial intelligence injects vitality into the market development of the medical industry and suspends in lubricating oil. Medical intelligence and intelligent medicine are one of the hot directions of the development of artificial intelligence at present. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(this article is based on Zhu Min's speech at the China it Leadership Summit.)

Zhu Min

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