CPI may climb to a new high in October, with multi

CPI may climb to a new high in October multiple factors push up prices

CPI may climb to a new high in October multiple factors push up prices

China's construction machinery also saves maintenance cost information

Guide: the National Bureau of statistics will announce the October consumer price index (CPI) and the factory price index of industrial products (PPI) on November 11. At the beginning of November, many economists predicted that the average CPI in October was 4.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from September. Industrial Bank's CPI forecast for October was the highest, at 4.2%

the National Bureau of statistics will release the October consumer price index (CPI) and the factory price index (PPI) of industrial products on November 11. At the beginning of November, many economists predicted that the average CPI in October was 4.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from September. Industrial Bank's CPI forecast for October was the highest, at 4.2%

food is still the main force of price rise

food price rise is still the main driving force for us to understand the high CPI in detail. According to the data monitored by the national development and Reform Commission, the price of meat rose slightly in October, while the price of edible oil and vegetables rose significantly. The average retail price of 15 major varieties of vegetables such as cucumber, tomato and rape in large and medium-sized cities increased by 10.1% over September

in terms of non food, taking clothing prices as an example, the rise in cotton prices since March gradually transmitted to the downstream, which began to be reflected in autumn and winter clothing prices in the third quarter

Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at industrial bank, believes that if the CPI exceeds 4.0% in October, it may lead the macro authorities to believe that the current price may have shown signs of accelerating rise, which has become the main inducement for another interest rate hike

PPI, which fell for five consecutive months, will also rebound in October. Economists' average forecast for PPI in October was 4.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from September, and the highest forecast reached 5.4%

the continuous strengthening of the purchase price index in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has shown the upward pressure of PPI. In October, the purchase price index rose 69.9% year-on-year, and the index has risen for three consecutive months, all of which exceeded 60%

cost pressure made in China

liuligang, director of China Economic Research at ANZ, believes that the rising purchase prices indicate that China's manufacturing industry is facing relatively severe cost pressure, which will also exert significant upward pressure on downstream consumer prices. "Due to excessive money supply, better than expected economic performance and the pressure of rising global commodities, the inflation rate is far from the top."

some views believe that the CPI will fall below 4% in November and December, but most economists believe that the inflationary pressure next year cannot be ignored

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities in Greater China, believes that rising wages, rising food and utility prices, strong domestic demand, and loose monetary policy since the subprime mortgage crisis will lead to inflationary pressures higher than expected next year

recently, the decision-making level has shown greater concern about inflation. The third quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank, which was released on November 2, shows that developed economies such as the United States can be directly processed into products by ordinary thermoplastic molding methods; The vigilance of quantitative easing in the economy believes that under the background of abundant liquidity and strong inflation expectations, surplus funds must find various ways and exports, and potential inflationary pressures must be "highly concerned"

in addition, the central bank believes that there is still structural upward pressure on prices in China. At present, the prices of domestic labor and service industries are rising, the costs of resources and environmental protection are increasing, and the prices of resource products need to be straightened out, which "may affect inflation expectations"