CPI rebounded slightly in March, and PPI may be ne

CPI rebounded slightly in March, PPI may usher in the first negative growth in three years

CPI rebounded slightly in March, PPI may usher in the first negative growth in three years

China Construction machinery information

Guide: according to the schedule of the National Bureau of statistics, the Bureau of statistics will announce the CPI and PPI in March 2012 (no condensation below 80%) today. The market expects CPI data to rebound slightly, but PPI will usher in the first negative growth since December 2009. In view of the fact that the industry as a whole is still in a period of inventory adjustment with low demand, the Ministry of Commerce

according to the schedule of the National Bureau of statistics, the Bureau of statistics will announce the CPI and PPI for March 2012 today. The market expects CPI data to rebound slightly, but PPI will usher in the first negative growth since December 2009

in view of the fact that the industry as a whole is still in the inventory adjustment period with weak demand, the monitoring of the prices of means of production by the Ministry of Commerce shows that in late February and early March, except for the continuous rise in the prices of ferrous metals, chemical products and agricultural materials, the prices of other major means of production have risen and fallen weekly, and a stable upward trend has not yet formed. Although China raised the price of refined oil on March 20, it is expected that it will be difficult to change the current overall decline in industrial prices

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank (Weibo), believes that the increase in the price of refined oil is expected to directly push the PPI upward by 0.13 percentage points when it is not adjusted. However, considering the off-season consumption after the holiday, the growth of means of living slows down, and considering the time lag factor reflected in the price change of upstream basic raw materials in the price of downstream processed industrial products, In March, PPI will continue to rebound through relevant tests based on clamping materials with clamps, rising to the range of 0.3~0.5%, with a median forecast of 0.4%. However, due to the high base last year, PPI will continue to decline year-on-year, falling into the range of -0.4~0, with the median forecast of -0.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month

keep clean (it is best to clean after each experiment); The sliding surface of the inlaid steel plate in contact with the lining plate and the dovetail groove surface on the lining plate should be kept clean. The report issued by Nomura Securities also believes that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will further decline to close at about -0.3%

according to the historical law, the industrial index in March is generally higher than that from January to February. The seasonal warming factor has prompted the steel price to rebound slightly in the near future, and the steel inventory has also peaked and fell. The PMI data just released in April also showed that China's demand rebounded, mainly due to the recovery of domestic demand. In particular, the rebound momentum of non-metallic mineral products industry and automobile industry shows that infrastructure investment tends to accelerate and enterprise production tends to boom after the weather turns warm, but it is difficult to reverse the dilemma of declining profits in the short term. As the industrial recovery may be relatively slow, the negative growth of PPI may be maintained in the next few months

as for CPI, the market is expected to be flat or slightly rebound in March, mainly because food prices remain stable and some varieties rise and fall. The general wholesale price index of agricultural products and the wholesale price index of "vegetable basket" products in March released by the Ministry of agriculture showed that the year-on-year increase of the two indexes continued to expand compared with February. Lihuiyong, chief Macro Analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, believes that CPI is expected to be 3.2%, and food prices are expected to rise by 6.4%. Vegetable prices are the main reason for the expansion of food prices. Nomura Securities predicts that the CPI in March may rebound to about 3.4%

the market also took note of the information previously disclosed by Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, at the Boao Forum. At that time, Zhang Xiaoqiang said that according to the preliminary data of "relevant research institutions" in China, the CPI rose by about 3.5%. This basically verified the market's judgment on the steady decline of inflation

Zhang Xiaoqiang quoted the preliminary data of "details of accessories for thermal insulation material testing machines of relevant research institutions" at that time, saying that China's GDP increased by about 8.4% in the first quarter, which also meant that the "cold" situation of the economy in the first quarter, which was once the most worried about, was not serious, and China's economy could achieve a "soft landing" in the future

the national development and Reform Commission also recently held a national economic operation working meeting to warn of possible risks in economic operation regulation. Liu Tienan, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the national energy administration, stressed that since this year, the national economy has continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control, and the overall economic operation is good. At present, the supply and demand of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation is generally balanced, but there are still many factors affecting the stable supply, and the supply may be tight in some regions and peak hours